As part of our activities in the framework of the InvigoratEU Expert Hub on EU Enlargement, on 1 June 2026, TEPSA is organising the group’s fifth closed-door meeting in cooperation with Carnegie Europe. The meeting takes place under the Chatham House Rule.

About the Expert Hub on EU Enlargement

The InvigoratEU Expert Hub gathers an exclusive group of distinguished EU and national policymakers and civil servants from the European Commission, EEAS, European Parliament, Council Secretariat, Permanent Representations and current/upcoming Presidencies of the Council of the EU, who work on EU enlargement and related issues.

It is created in the framework of the Horizon Europe project InvigoratEU – “Invigorating Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy for A Resilient Europe”, which sets out to explore how the EU can invigorate its enlargement and neighbourhood policy to enhance Europe’s resilience.

Between 2024 to 2026, TEPSA is organising a series of closed-door discussions to bring together Expert Hub members and researchers from the InvigoratEU project. These meetings provide a forum for a structured dialogue about key research findings and policy advice on EU enlargement. Selected members of the Expert Hub are invited to each meeting based on their specific expertise and its relevance to the topics discussed and can provide feedback and insights into the research process.

Objectives & format

Russia does not need to be overwhelmingly strong to gain ground in the EU’s neighbourhood. It only needs the EU to leave enough empty space with delayed promises, blurred timelines, half-open doors, and societies slowly losing faith that the EU means what it says.

In the Western Balkans, wherever EU conditionality has lost credibility, Russian disinformation fills the information space, pro-Kremlin political forces and hybrid interference gain ground. In the Eastern neighbourhood, Russia spent years exploiting the EU’s ambiguity, its reluctance to name the aggressor, its insistence on “restraint,” its exclusion of defence cooperation from the Eastern Partnership. February 2022 made this ambiguity untenable. Nevertheless, even now, with the EU starting to reinvent itself as a security actor at historic speed, the hesitation has not vanished. It is precisely in this limbo that Russian conventional and hybrid threats continue to operate most effectively.

This meeting borught together InvigoratEU researchers whose work explores the following question:

How is Russia exploiting the gaps created by EU incoherence in the enlargement process, through conventional and hybrid threats to candidate countries, and what are actionable steps that the EU should take in response?

The meeting opened with the welcoming remarks by Prof Dr Michael Kaeding (Professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Director of Studies at the College of Europe, InvigoratEU Coordinator), who also moderated the discussion.

Tyyne Karjalainen (Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs) presented how the geopolitical logic that once constrained EU engagement created precisely the vulnerabilities that Russia repeatedly took advantage of. She also addressed how the EU should expand its role in defence support at a time when demand for European defence solutions is increasing. Elena Ventura (Research Analyst, Carnegie Europe) presented new research on democracy support innovations in the candidate countries, where enlargement conditionality has been inconsistent. In this respect, increasingly sophisticated hybrid interventions have stepped in and exploited the resulting disillusionment. Prof Dr Frank Schimmelfennig (Professor of European Politics at the Center for Comparative and International Studies at ETH Zürich) acted as a discussant.

Key takeaways

Now more than ever, the EU needs actionable steps to counter Russia’s conventional and hybrid threats exploiting the EU’s hesitation in the candidate countries. The Expert Hub participants debated what the EU’s role is in a rapidly changing security context and what approach would prove the most effective: Europeanising NATO or securitising the EU. Participants also underlined the growing need for the EU to support grassroots organisations with direct ties to populations on the ground in candidate countries as a key lever for tackling Russia’s malign narratives.