The European Parliament has published a study requested by the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and coordinated by the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA).

“Challenges faced by the EU enlargement countries from Russian hybrid interference” is authored by Levan KAKHISHVILI, Postdoctoral Researcher at ETH Zurich. Coordination was managed by TEPSA Project Officer, Ana LELADZE.

Abstract

This paper analyses how Russia’s hybrid interference targets European Union (EU) enlargement countries and how the EU responds, particularly with regard to its enlargement policy. It develops a precise, strategy‑centred concept of ‘hybrid interference’ that distinguishes coordinated, multi‑instrument campaigns against domestic democratic orders from broader notions of hybrid warfare, influence or leverage. On this basis, it maps recurring vulnerabilities across nine enlargement countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine – and identifies six main instruments in Russia’s toolkit: covert political financing; information operations; legal‑constitutional obstruction via proxy elites; energy and economic leverage; cyber operations; and security‑sector penetration with support for proxy violence. The empirical core combines a cross‑country overview with a focused comparison of Moldova, Georgia and Serbia to show how these instruments are re-combined under different domestic alignments and conflict settings. The paper then examines the EU’s evolving counter‑strategy, from the 2016 Joint Framework, the Global Strategy and Strategic Compass to on‑the‑ground measures in enlargement countries, highlighting both progress in mainstreaming hybrid resilience into accession conditionality and persistent implementation gaps. It argues that EU tools are most effective where reform‑oriented elites align with EU objectives, as in Moldova and least effective where domestic governments internalise Russia’s authoritarian playbook, as in Georgia, or pursue ambiguous dual‑track policies, as in Serbia. The concluding recommendations set out how the European Parliament can use its legislative, budgetary and scrutiny powers to embed democratic resilience and counter‑hybrid measures at the heart of the enlargement process.