The European Parliament has published a study requested by the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and coordinated by the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA).

“The impact of the fall of the Assad regime on Syria and the wider region” is authored by Dr. Jan DANIEL, Senior researcher, Institute of International Relations; Anna FILIPIOVÁ, PhD candidate, Department of Middle Eastern Studies, Charles University; Dr. Clément STEUER, Senior researcher, Institute of International Relations.

Coordination was managed by TEPSA Project Manager, Mathilde CHIGNESSE.

Abstract

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, after more than five decades of Ba’athist rule, has reconfigured Syria’s political order and foreign relations. By the end of summer 2026, the transitional government under Ahmed al-Sharaa had secured rapid international rehabilitation – including the lifting of United Nations sanctions and partial removal from European and American sanctions regimes. Yet, domestic consolidation remains incomplete, with structural economic issues, sectarian violence, controversies over minority protection and limited accountability exposing the new order’s fragility and authoritarian tendencies. Drawing on interviews, fieldwork and policy analysis, this paper examines Syria’s emerging political, security and economic dynamics, the repositioning of regional and international actors, as well as the leverage available to the European Union. It identifies three pathways for Syrian development over the next 12 to 24 months: state consolidation, authoritarian stabilisation or fragmentation. Which of these prevails will depend on the combination of external pressure and al-Sharaa’s capacity to deliver inclusive domestic governance and manage the economic challenges. For the European Parliament, its central challenge is to translate the European Union’s financial support into political leverage at a time when other actors have already moved decisively to occupy the economic and diplomatic space.