The European Parliament has published a study requested by the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and coordinated by the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA).

“Beyond declarations: Evaluating CFSP methodologies in Türkiye, the Western Balkans and the ‘Accession Trio’ countries” is authored by Prof Dr Giselle BOSSE, Full Professor, Maastricht University; Irakli SIRBILADZE, Foreign Policy Analyst and Visiting Lecturer, Tbilisi State University; Marko TODOROVIĆ, Senior Researcher, European Policy Centre (CEP); and Elena VENTURA, Research Analyst, Carnegie Europe.

Coordination was managed by TEPSA Project Officer, Ana LELADZE.

Abstract

Alignment with the European Union’s (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy has become a central benchmark of enlargement countries’ strategic orientation and a key indicator of the enlargement process’s credibility. Under Chapter 31 and relevant association agreements, candidates are expected to align their foreign, security and defence policies progressively with those of the EU prior to accession. This requirement has gained renewed political importance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has heightened the role of sanctions, geopolitical positioning and foreign policy coherence within enlargement. However, past experience shows that formal pre-accession alignment does not always translate into post-accession cohesion, particularly where candidate countries maintain external dependencies or pursue hedging strategies. Current EU monitoring relies heavily on quantitative indicators, such as declaration alignment rates, which often fail to capture implementation and political intent. This study evaluates the existing methodology (2020–2025) and proposes a revised framework combining quantitative and qualitative indicators to provide a more accurate and policy-relevant assessment of Common Foreign and Security Policy alignment.